Pakistan's Exports Jump 17.6% in September, But the Trade Gap Still Widens

Pakistan's exports rose 17.6% year-on-year in September 2026, provisional data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics this week shows, climbing to $2.94 billion from $2.5 billion in September 2025. The gain wasn't enough to stop the trade deficit from widening: imports grew faster in dollar terms, and the monthly gap between what Pakistan sold abroad and what it bought came to $3.56 billion, up 6.2% from $3.35 billion a year earlier.

The numbers behind the headline

Imports in September 2026 totalled $6.49 billion, up from $5.85 billion in September 2025 — a rise of roughly $640 million against an export gain of roughly $440 million. That gap is the entire story: export growth alone doesn't close a trade deficit if imports are growing from a larger base and at a comparable or faster pace in absolute dollar terms. PBS described the figures as provisional, subject to revision once additional customs data is incorporated, which is standard practice for the agency's monthly releases.

The first quarter looks the same way

The September numbers are also the final month of data for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026-27 (July–September 2026). Over that quarter, exports rose nearly 11% to $8.42 billion from $7.59 billion in the same period last year, while the cumulative trade deficit widened by more than 15% to $10.79 billion from $9.37 billion. The pattern holds at both the monthly and quarterly level: Pakistan is selling more abroad in dollar terms than it did a year ago, and still running a bigger deficit, because it is buying even more.

Why this keeps happening

Textile exports remain the backbone of Pakistan's outbound trade, and their performance typically sets the tone for the overall export number — when textile shipments are strong, as they appear to have been in September, the headline export figure moves with them. But Pakistan imports the energy, machinery and raw materials that its own industry and consumption depend on, and a growing economy tends to pull in more imports even as its exporters do better. That dynamic has shown up before in Pakistan's external accounts: the same month saw the rupee holding against the dollar and foreign exchange reserves and remittances doing some of the work of covering the gap that trade alone doesn't close.

What it means for the IMF-monitored program

A widening trade deficit matters beyond the trade ledger itself. It feeds directly into the current account, which the IMF's ongoing review of Pakistan's Extended Fund Facility tracks closely as one marker of external stability. A bigger deficit financed by remittances and reserves is a different story, fiscally, than one financed by fresh borrowing — and which of those is happening will become clearer as the State Bank publishes its own current account data for September in the coming weeks.

Build Better Pakistan's Economy Desk tracks monthly trade data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and will update this coverage when revised figures or the September current account numbers are released.