Weekly Inflation Climbs to 11.85% as LPG Prices Jump 22%

Pakistan's weekly inflation rate rose to 11.85% year-on-year in the week ended October 22, up from 11.38% the week before, as a 22.44% jump in LPG prices and a 12.20% rise in chicken outweighed falling tomato and petrol prices, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data reported by Profit.

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), which PBS computes weekly from essential items across major cities to track short-term price movement, rose 0.65% over the previous week. The combined index stood at 374.84 points, up from 372.43 a week earlier and 335.14 in the corresponding week of 2025. PBS publishes the underlying executive summary on its own site.

What pushed the index up

LPG led the week's increases by a wide margin, rising 22.44%, followed by chicken (12.20%), onions (4.19%), shirting cloth (1.86%), plain bread (1.66%) and wheat flour (1%). The LPG jump follows warnings from industry representatives earlier this year that Pakistan could face a winter supply shortage unless import volumes and transport routes improved, a risk that appears to be showing up directly in what households now pay for a cylinder.

What pulled the index down

Tomatoes fell 21.99%, continuing the sharp swings in produce prices that have marked this autumn's SPI readings, followed by petrol (3.63%), bananas (2.42%), diesel (1.68%) and potatoes (1.38%). The petrol and diesel declines reflect the ex-depot price revisions OGRA has issued through the month, tracked on our live fuel price page, even as some of those same fuel costs feed into LPG and transport prices elsewhere in the basket.

A reversal from the previous week

Last week's SPI reading showed inflation easing to 11.38%, as falling tomato and onion prices offset gains in wheat flour and chicken. This week's LPG-driven jump reverses that trend, underlining how volatile the SPI's narrower basket of essential goods can be from one week to the next, even when the underlying drivers — seasonal demand, fuel costs, supply disruptions — change only gradually.

How this compares with the official inflation rate

The SPI is a weekly snapshot of a narrower basket of essential goods, not Pakistan's headline inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index, PBS's broader monthly measure, stood at 10.3% in September, itself down from 11.1% in August. The SPI has run above the CPI through most of this stretch, reflecting how heavily weighted it is toward the food and fuel items — including LPG — that have moved the most this year.

What to watch

PBS publishes the next SPI report around October 29. Whether LPG prices keep climbing as winter demand builds, and whether this week's chicken and onion increases prove temporary or settle into a longer run, will determine whether the year-on-year rate keeps rising toward 12% or reverses again, as it has done repeatedly through October.

Build Better Pakistan's Economy Desk tracks PBS's weekly inflation data and will update this piece as new figures are released.