Qatar Extends LNG Force Majeure to November 5, Leaving Pakistan Scrambling Before Winter

Pakistan is heading into its highest-demand winter gas months with its main LNG supplier still unable to deliver on schedule. QatarEnergy this week notified Islamabad and Dhaka that the force majeure it declared on LNG shipments in March has been extended through November 5, 2026 — pushing well into the period when Pakistan's gas network needs the most imported fuel to make up for insufficient domestic production.

Why Qatar still can't deliver on schedule

The disruption traces back to March 2026, when an Iranian strike damaged production capacity at QatarEnergy's Ras Laffan complex, and has persisted because the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's LNG trade passed in 2025 — has remained severely restricted amid the ongoing US-Iran war. Pakistan has previously managed to get individual cargoes through by negotiating safe passage directly with Iranian authorities, as it did twice in September alone for tankers that reached its import terminal despite the broader suspension. This week's notice extends the disruption at the contractual level rather than resolving it cargo by cargo.

The gap Pakistan now has to fill

Under its long-term government-to-government agreement, Pakistan normally receives around nine cargoes a month from Qatar. Since the force majeure began in March, it has received only nine cargoes from Qatar in total and had to buy seven more on the international spot market through July to cover the shortfall — a costlier option that strains a balance-of-payments position already under close watch as part of Pakistan's ongoing IMF review. The timing compounds the problem: gas demand in Pakistan rises sharply through the winter because domestic production alone cannot meet consumption, leaving imported LNG the marginal supply that balances the system. Industry estimates put the requirement at three to four cargoes in November, seven to eight in December, and ten to eleven in January as colder weather pushes up both household heating and power-generation demand.

What's being proposed to avoid a shortfall

With the contracted route still constrained, officials and industry voices are pointing to two options: intensified spot-market purchases and gas rationing to protect priority users. Mian Zahid Hussain, a prominent Pakistani business figure writing in Pakistan & Gulf Economist, has argued that without urgent spot-cargo purchases and rationing measures, the disruption risks "halting the industrial wheel" — and has specifically urged the government to prioritise gas supply to export-oriented industries if rationing becomes necessary. That framing reflects a recurring tension in Pakistan's energy policy: whichever sectors get priority access to a shrinking supply, others go without, and the choice tends to fall on households, general industry, or exporters in some combination.

Why this is bigger than one supplier's delay

Pakistan is not alone in absorbing this disruption — Bangladesh received the same notice from QatarEnergy this week — but Pakistan's exposure is sharper because it has fewer alternative suppliers under long-term contract and a domestic gas production base that has been declining for years, a structural problem this site has covered in the context of chronic circular debt building up across the energy sector more broadly. A prolonged Hormuz disruption converts what would normally be a fixed, budgeted cost — LNG under long-term contract — into an unpredictable one priced on the spot market, at exactly the time of year Pakistan can least afford the volatility.

What to watch

The practical question through October is whether Pakistan can lock in enough spot cargoes before winter demand peaks, and whether QatarEnergy's November 5 date holds or slips further if Hormuz shipping conditions don't improve. A further extension would push the gap deeper into the high-demand months of December and January, when the shortfall is largest and the options for covering it — mostly higher-priced spot purchases — are also the most expensive.

Build Better Pakistan's Energy Desk is tracking Pakistan's LNG supply situation ahead of winter and will update this piece as QatarEnergy's force majeure status changes.